8/31 Kickoff Forecast

Once In A Blue Moon....

August 31st will host a "Blue Moon", an occurrence that actually isn't that rare. Blue Moon's occur just about every three years with the next one expected in 2015.  So you are probably thinking, if they aren't that rare then why have I never seen a "Blue" moon. Well a "Blue" moon actually doesn't refer to color. A Blue Moon is the 2nd full moon in a month and there is the old saying....Once In A Blue Moon. Normally each month has one full moon. August 1st displayed the first full moon of the month and now August 31st will display the second full moon which is considered the Blue Moon. However, the moon can take on many colors including blue but it all depends on the particles int he air and how light is being reflected. So even though you probably won't see a "Blue" moon this Friday, you will be witnessing a "Blue Moon".  Maybe someday you will get the chance to see a moon that is actually Blue.

Winter Outlooks Being Released

Yes. It is getting there. The snow season is approaching whether you like it or not. The recent weather pattern is starting to give the air a more Autumn feel and the snow will start flying sooner than later. So to send your summer off on a good note, one of AccuWeather's Meteorologists has released a winter outlook so you can begin preparing for the upcoming winter.  Enough of the warm sunny days, it's time to dust off the snow blower that you barely used last year and start prepping for the good ole NW PA winter season.

Typical winter weather due to weak to moderate
El Nino conditions.
Image: AccuWeather

One of the main features that will be affecting our winter here will be El Nino/La Nina. Both have to do with the temperature of the water in the equatorial Pacific and  with El Nino referring to warmer than average water temperatures and La Nina referring to cooler than average water temperatures.  Both have an impact here in the U.S. because the temperature of the water ultimately affects the jet stream and weather patterns.  It is expected that a weak to moderate El Nino will be in effect in the Fall and will continue into the winter. 

AccuWeather's recent winter outlook.
Image: AccuWeather.

Typically, a weak El Nino weather pattern brings slightly below average temperatures here in our region with near average precipitation.  The temperature and precipitation anomalies for a weak El Nino are pictured below. AccuWeather has left us out of any "forecast" so I'm assuming they are predicting near average for precipitation and temperature for our area. 

Our area is slightly below average in temperature from
Nov to Mar during a "weak El Nino".
Image: NOAA

Our area is near average in precipitation from
Nov to Mar during a "weak El Nino".
Image: NOAA

Area Snowfall totals from 2011-2012.

This is the first winter outlook that I've seen so far. I'll keep checking.  Usually the Farmers Almanac and Weather Channel release winter outlooks. Also, I'm sure AccuWeather will release another one as well.  Here is last year's weak snowfall totals around the area: 

Fair Forecast

CrawfordWeather.com is pleased to announce that it will be doing Weather Forecasts for the week of the Crawford County Fair.  Make sure to check out these daily forecasts at our Fair Forecast Page.

You will also find current conditions near the fairgrounds as well as other valuable weather information regarding the fair.

I've also compiled a spreadsheet that has 10 years worth of weather data from Meadville during Fair weeks.  It is definitely worth checking out. See what the average temperature and precipitation is for the week, and even for each day.  Here is a summary:

The full spreadsheet can be downloaded HERE. 

Thursday's Storm Pictures

Thursday turned out to be a fairly eventful day as some storms rolled through the area again.  Many users sent in pictures of shelf clouds on Facebook and through e-mail. I will share them with you on here.  Thanks for all the pictures!  CrawfordWeather.com loves pictures so if you have any type of weather related picture, don't hesitate to send it to jordan@crawfordweather.com or post it on our Facebook or Twitter pages.  Please include the location and date of the picture.  These pictures are from Thursday August 9th.

Fran Myers-Morris
Woodcock Township
Taken in the evening

Laural Taylor Orosz
Conneautville, PA

Erin Fisher
Cherrytree, PA

Fran Myers-Morris
Woodcock Township
10:15 AM

 

Matt Dailey
Townville, PA

Julie Barton
Saegertown, PA

Julie Barton
Saegertown, PA

Sent in by Jenna Schelenberger
H&H Hardware Saegertown, PA

Tristen Jean Grindstaff
Baldwin Street Meadville, PA

Tristen Jean Grindstaff
Baldwin Street Meadville, PA

Townville, PA

Shelf Cloud Pictures 8/8

Wednesday saw a few storms roll through the area. One in particular prompted a severe thunderstorm warning for Western Crawford, a flood warning for much of Crawford County, and even produced some neat clouds including a shelf cloud. Here are some shelf cloud pictures. 

Shelf cloud approaching Townville in Eastern Crawford County.

E Lisa Froncillo-Bower
East of Meadville
8/8

Shelf cloud before reaching Townville. Taken near
Lyona Rd/Rt. 408.
Photo taken by Erica Meabon.

If you have any weather pictures, please send them to jordan@crawfordweather.com and I'll post them on my blog, facebook, and/or twitter!

AccuWeather's Fall Outlook

AccuWeather has released their Fall Outlook.  They are predicting a warm and dry fall for our region with cold air returning late.  They also said an early frost is unlikely.  Fall begins September 22 and runs through December 20. 

More can be read here:  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2012-fall-forecast/68844

Fall 2012 Outlook from AccuWeather.
Image from AccuWeather.com

Meteor Shower Event Coming Up

Image: NASA

The Perseids will put on their annual show this year, peaking on August 11th at 2 AM.  These occur every year starting in late July and going through August and typically produce 50-60 meteors per hour at the peak.  They are seen in the northeastern part of the sky.It will be a great time to view them this year due to the moon being in a waning crescent phase so it won't be a nuisance in trying to view them.  The only thing to worry about is cloud cover which right now is looking to be an issue. Hopefully the weather changes between now and then  but a large weather system is expected to move up the eastern coast which could ruin the event for our area.  

Mars Rover Successfully Lands

One of the first pictures Curiosity sent back to Earth.
Image: NASA

Mars sunset taken by Spirit. 
Image: NASA

Curiosity, NASA's latest Mars Rover, successfully landed on Mars last night and sent its first pictures within minutes of landing, making it a very successfully mission.  Many more pictures will be received in the next two years as Curiosity roams a huge crater on Mars, searching for the key essentials for life.  Curiosity actually has 17 cameras equipped on it so more, and better pictures will be sent.  Curiosity joins Opportunity, another NASA rover that is currently still roaming the martian planet.  Spirit, another rover launched around the same time as Opportunity, became stuck a couple years ago and NASA ended up losing communication and scrapping that mission.  Both of those rovers were very successful as they gathered useful data, took amazing pictures, and outlasted their expected lifetime.  This may be one of the last missions you'll see from NASA due to funding cuts. It's very unfortunate that funding was cut to them. This is one of the better things we Americans pay for. 

Mars Rover Will Land Monday

Image from NASA

NASA will be attempting to land their latest rover named Curiosity on Mars.  Definitely worth staying up and watching on the news.  Curiosity is scheduled to land at 1:31 a.m. ET Monday.  Spirit and Opportunity were the last 2 rovers sent to Mars back in 2004. They lost communication with Spirit and gave up on it in May 2011. However, Opportunity is still going strong and has exceeded its mission length tremendously.

Good article:  http://news.yahoo.com/excitement-builds-mars-rovers-landing-sunday-185857943.html

Severe Weather Likely For Sunday

SPC Outlooks for Sunday.

SPC Statement Sunday Morning:

...NY/PA INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
   SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  STRONG STORMS
   MOVING OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL OH THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO
   SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING
   HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS/ SHOWING ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEWD ALONG THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH
   ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND REDUCE THE RATE OF
   DESTABILIZATION TODAY.  SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF CLOUD
   COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LAKE ERIE ENEWD INTO NY...WILL PROMOTE
   AREAS OF GREATER HEATING.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ON
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH
   MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  STRONGER SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS
   ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE
   SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
    THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL
   WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

Drought Monitor Update

Here is the new drought monitor.  We have been downgraded from "moderate drought" to "abnormally dry".  Our region saw a decent amount of precipitation towards the end of July which helped solve some of our drought issues.  July actually ended up being above average in terms of precipitation.

July In Review, A Look Into August

July has finally come to an end. Let's take a look how July 2012 turned out.

July 2012 Summary
Avg High (°F)	Avg Low (°F)	Total Precip (in)
83	65	4.73
Average Values
Avg High (°F)	Avg Low (°F)	Total Precip (in)
80	60	4.26
Difference
Avg High (°F)	Avg Low (°F)	Total Precip (in)
3	5	0.47

July 2012 turned out to be above average for high and low temperatures and precipitation which is good news for the moderate drought that we have been in. 

So how does August look?

Temperature outlook for August. Forecasted to be above average
for temperatures in our region.
CPC

Precip outlook for August. Expected to be around normal for our region.
CPC.

According to the CPC, it looks like we'll be above average for temperatures and about normal for precipitation.  The average high for August is 78°F, while the average low is 59°.  Precipitation is usually around 3.60 inches.