New Storm Brewing?

Sandy ravaged much of the north east coast the last few days including parts of NYC.  The pictures coming from there are devastating.  As predicted, this storm was one for the record books...in more ways than one.  Thankfully here in NW PA we were spared the damage for the most part.  There were numerous reports of trees down across the county along with a few power outages.  Winds weren't as strong as predicted and the rainfall was also less than expected. 

Now that Sandy has come and is gone, it is time to get back to normalcy.  Looking at the weather the next few days, it is time to start talking some snow.  Friday to Sunday our area could see some snow flakes...nothing to heavy and no accumulations are expected but we are almost at the point where there is no turning back to the warmth.

Potential nor'easter for election day.

A couple weather models (most notably the GFS) is picking up on a potential nor'easter around election day.  A nor'easter is a coastal storm that originates in the south and brings alot of gulf moisture with it up the east coast.  It typically produces alot of rain on the eastern side of it and usually wraps in cold air on the western side.  The western side usually sees snow, which is what we typically see.  It is still to far out to see what the models do with this storm but definitely check back as I'll be following it over the next couple days.  The NAO index, which is a good indication of possible east coast storms, is very negative right now which means that an east coast storm is likely sometime in the near future.  We will have to see....

Superstorm Sandy Latest

Here is the latest on Sandy...

Path of Sandy.

It is now a "Post Tropical Cyclone" and has max winds of 80 mph about its center. It is expected to make its way into north central PA just to our east where it will hang out for a little bit before moving into NY state. 

As we head overnight we will be experiencing the worst of Sandy.  Winds are expected to be sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts reaching 50 mph.  Rainfall totals overnight will be around 1" to 1.5". So far totals have been under an inch but heavier rain will add to the total tonight. This will lead to flooding and ponding of water in low lying areas as well as power outages and falling trees. 

NW REC power outages.

Penelec Power outages

Many trees have already been reported down around the county and some locations are without power.  Here are the latest power outage maps: 

Meadville airport has reported a wind gust of 43 mph as of 10 PM and winds will only get stronger as the night goes on.  Things will lighten up towards morning however.

Many Erie county schools are closed or operating on a 2 hour delay. No word yet on Crawford County schools.  School closings can be found at WJET-TV. 

As for current advisories...

A Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through Tuesday Evening

and

A High Wind Warning Remains In Effect Until 4 Pm Tuesday.

Stay tuned for more updates.  The worst will occur overnight tonight and rainy
and breezy conditions will continue through at least Thursday.

I'll have wind gust maximums eventually and total rainfall as well. 

Questions...e-mail me at Jordan@CrawfordWeather.com 

Sandy Moving In...

Here is an update on Hurricane Sandy...

Sandy's track.
NHC

Currently (as of 8 PM Sunday), Sandy is a category 1 hurricane (Scale goes 1-5 with 5 being the strongest) with max winds of 75 mph and a pressure center of 950mb.  Rain from Sandy will begin to move in to Crawford County Monday and will stick around through at least Thursday.  Below is the Euro weather model and the path that Sandy will take, along with 6 hour precip (colors). 

8 PM Monday night.

8 AM Tuesday morning.

8 PM Tuesday night.

8 AM Wednesday morning.

Rainfall amounts expected from Sandy.  3-4" of rain is forecasted for
NW PA with locally higher amounts (5"+)
HPC

The impacts from Sandy on Crawford County are pretty clear.  Heavy rain will be an issue as forecasters are predicting 3-4" of rain with locally higher amounts (5"+).  With that amount of rain in a short amount of time, flooding becomes an issue in low lying areas and areas near rivers/creeks.  If you are in these areas, please be aware that during heavy rain events, rivers can rise rapidly in a short amount of time.  Always seek higher ground if situations like this occur. To put it in perspective to how much rain this storm will give us, the average rainfall for October is around 3.5 inches.  Currently we are at 3.43 inches.  This storm is expected to produce 3-4" of rain for us in a couple days and some locations will receive more, doubling what we currently have.

Power outages are likely.
TWC

Another impact will be wind gusts.  Winds are expected to be sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts even possibly reaching 50-60 mph.  These winds will no doubt take down trees and power lines/poles.  That is why power outages will likely occur in the area.  Power could be out for a  long period of time.  Manpower will be strained and the weather conditions will make it hard to restore power.  It is important that you have flashlights ready with fresh batteries in case of a power outage.  Also, water and food is also important and make sure you have enough in case there is no power for a while. Also bring in any loose furniture you may have outside or any other object that can easily be tossed by the wind.

Snow is not a concern at this point in NW PA.  Some locations to the east in the mountains could see some flakes and a light accumulation heading into the latter part of the week but here in Crawford County if we do see any snow it will be just a few flakes.  It is a different story to those living in SW PA and in West Virginia.  Locations in the mountains down there are expected to get pounded with blizzard like conditions.  Nothing to worry about here in Crawford in terms of snow though.

Locations in eastern PA and on the eastern coast will definitely be hit the hardest.  Thankfully here in NW PA we do not have to worry about storm surge.  We will feel the effects from this storm and it is important not to take it lightly.  Remember it is always better to over prepare than under prepare.  

Here are the advisories that we are currently under.  I expect the flood watch to change over to a warning when the rain begins to fall.

Flood Watch Remains In Effect From Late Tonight Through
Tuesday Evening

High Wind Warning In Effect From Noon Monday To 4 Pm Edt
Tuesday

Full details for the advisories are here. 

The most important thing is to use common sense during storms like these.  Turn around, don't drown is a good rule to abide by and stay inside whenever possible.  

Any questions, send me an e-mail at jordan@crawfordweather.com

And all hail King Euro, The European Weather Model. This weather model has been fairly accurate for a week now in predicting the path of this storm.  Last Sunday I stated this storm would make landfall between Ocean City, MD and Long Island, NY.  Well, it looks like it will do just that. 

Frankenstorm Is Coming

A cold front will move through later tonight, bringing
rain and cooler air before Sandy arrives.

I have much to talk about reguarding Hurricane Sandy (aka Frankenstorm) but let's talk the days leading up to it first.  Later today a cold front associated with a system up in Canada will begin making its way through our region.  Accompanying it will be showers and some cooler air.  This front won't make it through very fast and will stay around all day Saturday before it finally moves through. It will eventually slow down due to Hurricane Sandy moving in from the East.  The rain and the front are not associated with Sandy.  This is a different system all together.  However it will help bring Sandy in to the state.

Here is the path the NHC is predicting for Sandy.

Total rain forecasted by the HPC.  We can expect between 4-6".

So let's talk Sandy.  Currently Sandy is a Category 1 hurricane (Scale goes 1-5 with 5 being the worst) with max winds of 75 mph.  It is just to the east of Florida and is moving alongside the coast up this way.  It is projected to strengthen a little bit as it gets closer to the NE.  After waiting a few days, the models have finally come into agreement with Sandy hitting the NE, somewhere between Ocean City, MD and Long Island.  The euro model, which has been the best one all week, has it hitting south NJ, while the GFS has it hitting near Connecticut.  The NAM has it making landfall near Long Island.  Yes there is still disagreement for the landfall but it will hit the NE for sure.  Another thing that is certain is that NW PA will feel the effects from it, starting Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday will be the worst days.  Heavy rain and gusty winds are the main threat.  Rain is projected to be between 4-6" our area which is alot of rain!  Flooding will be a main concern for low lying areas and persons that live in those areas should take necessary actions now.  Winds will be very strong as well. Sustained winds of 30-40 are expected with gusts possibly reaching around 65 mph.  The NWS Cleveland has already said they expect a wind advisory to be issued over the weekend.  As for snow goes, I don't think we will receive much if any.  The best chance for some flakes is during the day Monday before hurricane Sandy moves in.  The cold front that I mentioned earlier will be bringing some cold air with it and some of the precip could come down as snow but probably only in the higher elevations and there won't be any accumulations.  It just is too warm at the surface, and not cold enough aloft.  It will be a rain event for Crawford County.  With winds reaching 65 mph, power outages should be expected all across the region.  Power could be out for a while so it is important that you stock up on fresh water and food and to get flashlights working. 

Power outages are likely.
Image: TWC

This storm is serious and should not be taken lightly.  Hurricanes or even any kind of tropical system for that matter do not hit the NE very often.  It is important that you prepare for this storm.  Obviously people on the coast will get hit the worst but things will be bad here in Crawford County as well.  Here is a small clip from the NWS State College advisory message earlier regarding pre storm actions. Most of these are applicable to our area, however evacuations will most likely not happen.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE STORMS ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.
2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR...ASSURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.
3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES...MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR
FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.
5. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING
AND COOKING.
6. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE...SECURE OR STORE IT
INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN
STRONG WINDS.
7. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES.
8. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE...CONSIDER
MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BE DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.
9. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE
DISABLED...CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE
IN AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.
10. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE...BE SURE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

This storm has the chance of being historical, especially for those living on the coast

If you have any family over that way, you should call them and make sure they are aware 

of the dangers of this storm 

I'll have more updates soon.

If you have any questions, e-mail me at jordan@crawfordweather.com

Make sure to stay with our Facebook page to receive news.   

Links: IR loop of Sandy

Vis loop of Sandy

North American Model showing Sandy's landfall
around Long Island.

Euro model, which has been the most consistent, is
showing a southern NJ landfall.

The GFS model, which has been really crappy but is
finally coming around, shows a Connecticut landfall.