Extreme Cold This Year, Extreme Warmth Last Year. What's Going On?

 Here is a graphic for you.








2012 vs 2013 Week of March 18-22 High Temperatures.
Red denotes 2012, blue 2013.

Talk about a huge difference!

This week in 2012 was a very warm one, as was the whole spring.  A few days this week temperatures topped 80° in many locations across the county. 

As for 2013, the exact opposite!  Temperatures have been very cold and have been unable to reach 40°. 

Why the difference?  A blocking pattern was relevant in both years around this time. However, the blocking pattern in 2012 was off the east coast, allowing for warm air to funnel from the south and storm systems to move well to our north.

This year, the blocking pattern is farther north into Greenland and extreme northern Canada.  This tends to stall storm systems out in the northeastern US and eastern Canada and pulls cold air down into the eastern US. 

As soon as the blocking pattern this year breaks down, we'll be on our way to spring.  However, this doesn't appear to happen until a week or so into April.

Messy Monday, Snowy & Cold Week Ahead

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Warning Message:The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for mixed precipitation which is in effect from
8 am to 2 PM EDT Monday for CRAWFORD COUNTY.

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The first day of spring is this Wednesday but you wouldn't know that by looking at the forecast.  A large disturbance will move through tomorrow morning bringing a wintry mix across the region.  Periods of freezing rain, snow/sleet, and rain are all likely tomorrow. Ice accumulation is a concern as well as a trace to an inch of snow.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s and gusty winds will make it feel like the middle of winter.  Monday is definitely the worst day of the week but this system is not expected to make it very far north and east before it stalls out.  A northwesterly flow will develop and persist all the way into the weekend.  Cold air will filter in and over the lake allowing for lake effect clouds and snow showers to develop.  Accumulations are likely through Friday with the snowbelt getting the most.  A couple inches to a half a foot are possible by the time the weekend approaches. So for the next week, clouds, cold, and a mix of precipitation to snow is the storyline.  No spring like weather is in sight.  That darn groundhog.

Monday afternoon model forecast. 
Blue = snow, green = rain, orange = sleet, pink = freezing rain

Monday's Maximum Temperatures

Freezing Rain, Ice an Issue for Friday & Saturday

An approaching system will bring warm air into the region Friday allowing for freezing rain, sleet, and a rain/snow mix to occur from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.  Road conditions will deteriorate fast so be careful if you have to adventure outside.  Freezing rain is most likely Friday afternoon and overnight Friday into Saturday morning. 

Ice accumulation chances Friday morning through Saturday morning.
Source: NOAA HPC

Skywarn Spotter Training

Skwarn spotter card that enables you to report severe
weather events to the NWS. 

-- Repost from last year with updated dates--

The NWS in Cleveland has announced the Skywarn Spotter Training dates for 2013.  Each year these training sessions are held in just about every county and main purpose is to educate the public on weather spotting techniques.  A meteorologist from the NWS is typically in attendance and gives a presentation on spotting techniques and a background on severe weather.  This event is free and is open to the public.  The Skywarn session in Crawford County will be held Thursday March 14, 2013at 6:30 PM.  It will be held in St. Brigids Church in Meadville.  If you can't make it to the one in Meadville, there will also be one in Erie at Hamot Hospital on Tuesday March 26, 2013at 6:30 PM.

I was able to attend the one in Erie two years ago.  It was my first time attending a Skywarn Session and I was impressed.  Gary Garnet, a meteorologist at the NWS in Cleveland gave a presentation on severe weather and spotting techniques.  The presentation was great and very informative.  I encourage everybody to attend a session.  It is a great experience and I guarantee you will walk out of there with more knowledge of the weather.  The best part about Skywarn is that it is free and open to anybody.  You also get the opportunity to sign up to become a spotter which enables you the chance to report any severe weather to the NWS.  Because they are in Cleveland and cannot be present every time severe weather occurs, they rely on their Skywarn spotters heavily for severe weather reports.  Everything is free and anybody can sign up.

  Crawford County Skywarn
  Thursday March 14, 20136:30 PM
  St. Brigids Church
  383 Arch Street
  Meadville, PA 16335
  MAP

  Erie County Skywarn
  Tuesday March 26, 20136:30 PM
  Hamot Hospital
  Hamot Hospital Audtorium
  201 State Street Erie, PA 16550
  MAP


Go To The NWS Cleveland Skywarn Website

Icy Commute Possible For Friday AM, No Impact From Coastal Storm

The weather got interesting real fast this week.  Only one weather model (Euro) was predicting a coastal storm to develop for this weekend at the beginning of the week.  However as days progressed, other weather models starting to agree and here we are today monitoring what could be a historical storm for the New England coast. Being far away from the coast, NW PA is out of the scope of this storm.  However, two pieces of "energy" will be trekking across the U.S. and merging on the coastline to form this historical storm.  The northerly most disturbance will take a path right through our region.  Even though it won't have quite the punch that the coastal storm will have, it still could provide a headache for travelers across the area.  This system is forecasted to move through starting early Friday AM (2-3AM) and will depart by Saturday morning.  With surface temperatures below freezing and this system bringing in warm air aloft, rain is likely to fall and freeze when it hits the surface in the early morning hours. (2-7AM).  A transition to rain and then snow will occur afterwards with snow accumulations of 2"-4" likely with  a few spots getting 5".  Things clear out Saturday afternoon with sun but chilly conditions.  A nice warm-up for Sunday and part of Monday as our next system moves into the region.  Colder air returns late Monday.

To summarize the event...

• The coastal storm (dubbed Nemo from TWC) will not affect our region.  
• One of the initial disturbances that will eventually form the coastal storm will affect us.
• Main concerns for Crawford County & the rest of NW PA...
•    Possible icy wintry mix (freezing rain) for Friday morning during commute hours.
•    Light to moderate snowfall accumulations during the late morning and afternoon hours.
• Clearing out by Saturday afternoon (sunny but chilly)
• Warm ahead of next system that will pass Monday.
  
  I hope this helps and relieves you of any Nemo concerns.  Boston, NYC and the rest of the New England coast will be hit the hardest, not so much once you head into PA except for northeastern PA.

As always feel free to e-mail me at jordan@crawfordweather.com or send me a Facebook message with questions.  

Snowfall Accumulations Overnight

Wintry Mix Expected Monday Morning

The cold is finally going a way for a few days.  Temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 40s and lower 50s early to mid week. However, it isn't very easy for warm air to just push cold air out of the way.  Cold air is more dense and warm air tends to override colder air.  This will occur Monday morning as warmer air moves in. Precipitation will fall through the warm layer as rain but as it approaches the surface it will hit that thin cold layer and will change over to an icy freezing rain/sleet mix. A glaze of ice is possible on surfaces which will create morning commute hazards so take it easy out there. It appears precipitation will transition to all rain by 11 AM. 

Notice the mix of colors across our region.  An icy wintry mix is likely for Monday morning.

Lake Effect Snow & Bitter Cold Highlight The Week

A nice shot of arctic air will move into the region this week bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far.  Highs will barely get in to the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday and lows could go below 0 as well.  Winds will be gusty at times during the week as well which will create numbing wind chills.

Of course with extremely cold air like this and an unfrozen lake, the lake effect snow machine kicks in high gear with flow off of the lake.  Instability from the cold air is going to be so extreme that thundersnow is possible within some of the stronger snow bands that will form.  Depending on where these bands set up ultimately determines who gets dumped on but it appears that much of our region will see at least a foot by the end of the week.

Monday (Day):  2"-5", highest amounts in the snowbelt
Monday (Night) 3"-6", highest amounts in the snowbelt
Tuesday (Day): 3"-6", highest amounts in the snowbelt
Tuesday (Day): 2"-4", highest amounts in the snowbelt
Wednesday: (Day & Night): 2"-4", highest amounts in the snowbelt

As for current advisories go...

WarningSum:...Lake Effect Snow Warning Remains In Effect Until 7 Am Est
Wednesday...

Warning Message:...Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect until 11 am EST
Wednesday...

I'll be looking for snowfall observations so go to our snowfall page and submit them to me!

Also, keep up-to-date with the weather by following us on Facebook.

Bitter Cold To Move In Next Week

It has been fairly warm the past week or so and I hope you haven't gotten used to it yet.  The overall atmospheric pattern is about to change and we are in for some bone chilling temperatures starting next week.  It'll be the first time this season that some Arctic air will be tapped into and brought down to the midwest and northeast on a large scale. 

Monday appears to be the first chilly day with highs expected to be in the mid teens. The rest of the week looks to be just as chilly with highs ranging from the single digits to the mid teens.  Overnight lows are expected to be single digits and even below 0 for a few nights.  Hopefully the firewood is chopped and ready to go.  This will be the coldest temperatures we've seen so far this winter season. 

Tuesday night's low temperatures.  Many are expected to be below 0.