Rainfall Totals From May 27th Storm

Here are some rainfall totals from around the region for the storms that rolled through our area May 27th.

Rainfall totals from May 27th storm. Some places saw over an inch of rain in
a short amount of time.
Values from wunderground.com

Memorial Day Forecast

Bust out the sunscreen and wear some light clothes for Memorial Day..it'll be a scorcher! Temperatures are expected to hit the 90s in the late afternoon with mostly sunny skies all day.  There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm for the early evening hours but most of the region will keep dry. I compiled a list of past Memorial Day weather going back 5 years.


 Past Memorial Day Weather (KGKJ - Port Meadville Airport)

Year       High       Low          Weather
2011       87           63            Sunny
2010       84           64            Thunderstorms
2009       75           51            Sunny
2008       79           55            Showers
2007       73           55            Partly Cloudy

Forecast for this year
2012       91           64            Mostly Sunny
                                              PM T-Storm?


** Record high for May 28th is 88 set back in 1978.  It looks like we will break that.


 If you are tired of the heat already...there is a cool down coming later this week.  More on that in a couple days.

NOAA Releases Hurricane Predictions

NOAA relased their annual predictions regarding the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season, which runs June 1st to November 30th.  They are predicting 9-15 names storms, of which 4-8 will become hurricanes.  They expect 1-3 of those hurricanes to become major hurricanes, which requires a status of Category 3 or higher.  Here are predictions from different people and places for the upcoming hurricane season.

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season

Source	Date	Named storms	Hurricanes	Major hurricanes
Average (1950–2000)[1]		9.6	5.9	2.3
Record high activity		28	15	8
Record low activity		4	2	0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR	December 7, 2011[2]	14	7	3
WSI	December 21, 2011[3]	12	7	3
CSU	April 4, 2012[4]	10	4	2
TSR	April 12, 2012	13	6	3
TWC	April 24, 2012	11	6	2
UKMO	May 24, 2012[5]	10*	N/A	N/A
NOAA	May 24, 2012	9-15	4-8	1-3
TSR	May 24, 2012	13	6	3

Source: Wikipedia

Some are on there twice as they have made revisions throughout the last few months.
Hurricanes are classified on the Saffir-Simpson scale:
                
                   wind (mph)
Category 1:   74-95
Category 2:   96-110
Category 3:   111-129
Category 4:   130-156
Category 5:   >= 157

The season hasn't officially began yet but there has already been one named storm: Alberto.

Summer Like Temperatures For End of Week and Weekend.

Looks like we'll get an early taste of summer starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend.  A deepening trough in the west and a ridge in the east will contribute to very warm temperatures Thursday through Sunday for the eastern half of the US.  Looks like temperatures will be in the upper 80s and could even come close to hitting 90 Sunday.  There will be plenty of sun time over this four day span but there is a slight chance for some showers/storms on a couple of the days.  Overall, it will be a decent end to the work week and weekend.

	High Temps °F	Record °F
Thursday	84	88
Friday	86	87
Saturday	85	85
Sunday	87	85
Avg High	85.5

Here is the GFS MOS temperatures for the next 7 days along with the normals for Wednesday.

     WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28| TUE 29|WED CLIMO
 N/X  53  77| 60  83| 62  84| 60  83| 65  87| 65  86| 63  76| 56 48 72

The GFS and Euro model both have our area close to the 90 degree contour for Sunday.  I wouldn't be surprised if we came close or hit 90.

18 Z Sunday Euro model of temps:  Light purple are 90s while dark purple is 80s.

18 Z Sunday GFS model of temps:  Light purple are 90s while dark purple is 80s.

Saturday's Chase Recap

Panoramic view of the approaching storm and its
structure.  A tornado warning was issued right after
this was taken.

The two cells we were chasing.  The white square
is where we were located and the white circle was where
somebody reported seeing a tornado a few minutes after we
saw one.

Saturday turned out to be pretty exciting. We went out to Salina, KS to start and we decided where we wanted to go from there.  We ended up heading north to Concorida, KS.  After grabbing lunch, we proceeded to head north and eventually crossed the KS/NE border.  We then turned west on route 4 and started heading towards a cell.  There was another cell to the south of it and it looked like they were going to merge so we eventually came up on the structure of the north cell and pulled off to the side.  We snapped a few pictures of the incoming storm and eventually moved south to try to get to the south side.  As we began to head south two tornado warnings were issued for both cells.  We continued to move south and I looked to the right of us and I saw some rotating dirt out in a field.  It was tough to see because the wind had kicked up a wall of dirt that was blowing across the field but as I continued to look the dirt kept rotating.  It appeared to be a very weak tornado and looking at the SPC reports, one was reported just northeast of us. We kept driving and eventually pulled off and took on some heavy rain and gusty winds.  Then we drove to the west of the cells and they began to weaken so we started heading back south again.  At this time most of the cells were out of our range or weakening. 

Mammatus clouds to the south west of the cells.

Chase Time

The StormTrackerWx team is currently outside of Salina, KS.  We will be heading north in a bit for the northern KS, Nebraska border area.  Storms are supposed to fire up along the front as it pushes through this afternoon and evening.  We'll be streaming live video so make sure to check it out around 5PM this evening.  The SPC has also reduced the tornado outlook for today. 

Follow updates at @CrawfordWeather on twitter and facebook.
Track us live at live.stormtrackerwx.com

Upgraded Risk

Tornado outlook.

Woke up to some delightful information today.  The SPC has upgraded the risk for severe weather in Central KS and Southern NE.  They have expanded the severe and tornado outlook which has the StormTrackerWx team excited.  We will be departing soon for Salina, KS and we'll decide where to go from there.  We seem to be in the center of it all for now which is great.

Partial Solar Eclipse Sunday

A partial eclipse will be viewable from Crawford County.
Credit: Bob King

Even though the best viewing for the solar eclipse is in the west, back here in Crawford County you'll be able to see a partial eclipse.  It will occur in the late evening towards sunset on Sunday so the sun will be very low on the horizon.  The eclipse will be very small.  It is advised not to ever look directly into the sun as this can lead to health problems.

Generally clear skies will give viewers a good shot of
seeing the partial eclipse.

Day 2

Driving through Kansas City

We will be mainly focusing on the central and southern KS area.

Finally made it out to Kansas.  We passed through Kansas City earlier this afternoon and now are resting up about 100 miles west near Junction City.  We are eyeing central and southern KS, and possibly northern OK for tomorrow afternoon.  We will deploy early in the morning and get ready for possible severe weather.  Nothing is quite set in stone yet.  Severe threat looks likely tomorrow but tornadic activity is looking low.  We will keep following the models and see if anything changes.  We are hoping to see some neat storm features either way so make sure to follow our live video feed at live.stormtrackerwx.com.

On The Road

Friday's severe outlook.

Saturdays severe outlook.

The storm chase began today as we set out for the Kansas City area.  We arrived just outside of St.Louis this evening and decided we would rest up there.  There is a slight chance for some severe activity tomorrow across the northern plain states.  The StormTrackerWx team will make our way out to Kansas City tomorrow morning and will go from there.  Saturday is looking a little more promising as there is a larger chance of severe potential across the central plains but in a smaller area.  We will be focusing on Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma area.  As of right now, the severe possibility is low but we are hoping for more ingredients to come together tomorrow and Saturday.  We will have to wait and see what develops.

Remember to track us live at StormTrackerWx.com and to follow us on Facebook and twitter.

We have decided to rest up in St.Louis.

Weekend Outlook

Beautiful weekend in store for the region.  Plenty of sun Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Temperatures will be increasing throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend where we'll top off in the lower 80s.  High pressure will be the main weather feature for our region. 

Frost Advisory Issued Overnight

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a frost
advisory...which is in effect from 2 am to 8 am EDT Thursday. 

Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30's 

for most of the area tonight.  These low temperatures will

 threaten outdoor vegetation so take any outdoor plants 

inside or cover them up if you can.

Pleasant Days Ahead

The next 5 days are looking very nice!  Other than a slight chance of a passing shower Wednesday afternoon, the next 5 days look pleasant with mild temperatures and plenty of sun.  This is due to an upper level ridge that will be providing the eastern US with great weather. 

Storm Chase Delayed

The storm chase has been delayed until Thursday.  This is due to a fairly quiet weather pattern that has set up across the United States.  A large ridge has been in place which is damping down any shortwaves moving across the western US into the plains.  However, Saturday is looking decent for storm development in the northern plains.  A shortwave is looking to move through along with a deepening low pressure system.  A low level jet is expected to develop ahead of the cold front which will advect gulf moisture up through the plains and fuel any type of storm development.  Here is some of the forecast discussion for the northern plains:

MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. THIS WILL BRING
THE COOL FRONT INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE
SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR SD
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY/EARLY EVENING...SITTING BETWEEN THE JAMES
VALLEY AND I-29 BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR RIGHT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN WARM/INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT.
GREATER CONCERN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OR
BACK-BUILDING OF STORMS.

This has given the StormTrackerWx team some hope for chasing some storms so we have decided to set out Thursday morning for the Dakotas.  We are hoping to run into some severe weather out there so wish us luck!  Remember to follow StormTrackerWx on facebook, CrawfordWeather.com on facebook, CrawfordWeather on twitter, and to check out the CrawfordWeather.com Blog for more details and updates as we progress through our trip.  You can watch us LIVE on StormTrackerWx.com as well!

"Supermoon" Lights Up The Sky.

Picture I took of the "supermoon" outside of Townville.
I caught it just as it began to rise above the treeline.

So this past weekend was the "Supermoon" event that was the talk of the world.  Hopefully you were able to step outside and take a peak at it, especially when it was on the horizon.  If not, don't sweat it.  I've found a great link to a slideshow of wonderful shots of the supermoon.

Click to view the slideshow.
Slideshow (at the bottom of the page):

Storm Chasing Event Coming Up

With the heart of tornado season underway, I have a great opportunity to participate in storm chasing for a week.  Starting May 16th, I'll venture away from Pennsylvania and out to a location that is favorable for severe weather development  for a week. The location has not be specified yet but as the day approaches, more details will come forward on where exactly we plan on heading.  More than likely we will venture out to the central plains or down in the southern states.  I will be teaming up with WJET-TV Meteorologist Jason Berry as he has many years of chasing experience.  This is a first time thing for me so I am very excited.

Anybody can follow this week long event.  Jason has launched StormTrackerWx.com, a website that is meant for our chasing.  You can follow us and watch us as we stream live video.  Live video streaming will give you the opportunity to see what we see!  You can also follow our adventures as we will be blogging throughout the week.  Make sure to check out the StormTrackerWx Blog.  Also, both mine and Jason's twitter accounts will be active and we will be tweeting a good amount.  That is another great way to keep track of us and the action.  More details will surface as we get closer to the chasing date so stay tuned!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Storm Chasing

The official starting date has been pushed back to Wednesday May 16 due to unfavorable weather.

May 16th - 23rd

Follow the chase at StormTrackerWx.com!

Live Streaming Video  (Have to sign-up... It is free!)
Follow the chase team:      StormTrackerWx Blog
                                        CrawfordWeather.com Blog
                                        Jason's Twitter:     @TrackTheStorm
                                        Jordan's Twitter:   @CrawfordWeather

Don't miss out on the chase!

Weekend Outlook

Not a bad weekend in store for the region.  Friday is shaping up to be a beautiful day with wall-to-wall sunshine.  Temperatures will be a little cool with highs expected to approach the low to mid 60's.  It should make for a pleasant day though so if you get a chance, get out and enjoy it.  If you can't make it out Friday, Saturday is looking pretty decent as well.  Skies will be generally clear and temperatures will be warmer as highs are expected to hit the low 70's.  Saturday is definitely a good day to go out and mow your lawn if you haven't done so yet.  Some showers move in Sunday.  There is only a chance and they will be light if they do occur so it won't be a washout.  Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as they hang around the 70° mark.  Overall, a pretty decent weekend is setting up with a chance for light showers Sunday.  

"Supermoon" Will Shine This Weekend

The moon will make its closest approach to the earth this weekend and will also be in its full stage.  The "Supermoon" will become full Saturday at 11:35 p.m but will be great to observe days before and after as well.

April Ends Dry, Will May Be The Same?

Currently there are no drought conditions for western PA but if the
dry weather continues, expect that to change.
Credit:  U.S. Drought Monitor

The month of April proved to be a little drier than average.  After a winter that did not produce much snowfall, the spring has started off dry as well.  Meadville Airport recorded 1.60 inches for the month of April, just about half of what is normal for the month (3.31 inches). The drought monitor has labeled much of the eastern part of the state as abnormally dry. If the lack of precipitation continues, a more severe level may be needed.  Recently, it seems we have entered  a more stormier pattern as we head into summer.  This pattern show provide rain for much of the state.  So it look as if May won't be as dry as April. Guess we will have to see.