Mild and Below Average Snowfall Summarizes Winter Season So Far

What a crazy winter season it has been.  What started out in the Fall as a forecasted cold and snowy winter has been nothing of the sort thus far and has Meteorologists scratching their heads.  The NAO has remained positive throughout the winter which has prevented the blocking of cold air.  The cold air has not been able to stick around for long periods and there really hasn't been much cold air in general.  I think roller coaster is a great description of the winter in our region so far.  For most of December and January we experienced warmer days with rain, followed by colder air and snow.  The position of the JET Stream is to blame for this weather pattern.  Towards late January we hit a calm stretch but recently the JET Stream has developed a more meridional flow which is again creating that roller coaster weather pattern.

Plot showing the 2011-2012 Average High Temperature and the Normal
High each month for Meadville, PA.  Average monthly high temperatures
have been above normal in this winter season so far.

 This winter has been above average in temperatures and below average in snowfall.  The average temperature departure from the observed highs and normal high through the months of November and January show that we are running about 5°F above normal.  The same can be said about the low temperatures.  They are running about 6°F above normal.  So it is no lie, this winter running a little warm.

Plot showing the 2011-2012 Average Low Temperature and the Normal
Low each month for Meadville, PA.  Average monthly low temperatures
have been above normal in this winter season so far.

MEADVILLE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
	Normal (°F)		Observed Avg (°F)		Departure (°F)
	High	Low	High	Low	High	Low
Nov 2011	48	33	54	38	6	5
Dec 2011	36	23	40	29	4	6
Jan 2012	31	17	36	23	5	6
Feb 2012	34	17	-	-	-	-
Mar 2012	43	24	-	-	-	-
Apr 2012	57	36	-	-	-	-

Plot of the 2011-2012 winter snowfall, the average snowfall, and last
years snowfall for each month for Erie, PA.  This year has been below
average in terms of monthly and total snowfall.

The closest location with snowfall records is Erie which is recorded by the NWS in Cleveland.   Clearly we have not had as much snow this year and the NWS data can confirm this.  Data shows that Erie is running 28.9 inches below normal for this time of the year.  I don't have snowfall data for Meadville but I do record it for Townville.  Total snowfall for this winter for Townville is 70.7 inches.  This is my first year keeping records so I have nothing to compare it too but I would have to assume that this is below normal.

ERIE SNOWFALL
Month/Year	Observed	Average	Departure	Last Year
	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)
Nov 2011	0.8	7.8	-7.0	0
Dec 2011	9.2	27.8	-18.6	12.7
Jan 2012	26.5	29.8	-3.3	21.5
Feb 2012		17.3		35.7
Mar 2012		11.2		14.8
Apr 2012		2.3		2.0
TOTALS	36.5	96.2	-28.9	86.7

The above average temperatures look to continue into next month.  The Climate Prediction Center is saying that our region will likely experience above average temperatures for the month of March as well as above average precipitation.  That precipitation however will most likely be in the form of rain so snow totals will likely continue to suffer. Even the three month outlooks show above average temperatures and precipitation.  It looks like this trend will continue into spring as well.

March temperature outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

March precipitation outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

March, April, and May temperature outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

 

March, April, and May precipitation outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center