Severe Weather Likely For Sunday

SPC Outlooks for Sunday.

SPC Statement Sunday Morning:

...NY/PA INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
   SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  STRONG STORMS
   MOVING OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL OH THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO
   SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING
   HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS/ SHOWING ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEWD ALONG THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH
   ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND REDUCE THE RATE OF
   DESTABILIZATION TODAY.  SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF CLOUD
   COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LAKE ERIE ENEWD INTO NY...WILL PROMOTE
   AREAS OF GREATER HEATING.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ON
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH
   MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  STRONGER SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS
   ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE
   SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
    THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL
   WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.