Unseasonably Warm Today

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today as a low pressure system begins to make it's way into our area.  Warm advection and mainly clear skies will have a great impact on today's high which is forecasted to be in the lower to mid 50's.  Temperatures will come close to the record temperature of 58° set back in 1967.  We'll montior the temperatures throughout the day to see if they go higher than what is forecasted and break the record.

Calmer Days Ahead

Over the next few days, the weather pattern is looking to calm down a bit.  There are no big storms on the horizon as of right now.  A few clipper systems will move through as we head into early next week.  Those will bring us some snow but big accumulations aren't expected.  As Wednesday rolls around, models are indicating another brief warm up, typical of the "roller coaster" weather pattern we've been experiencing.  A system will move through around Wednesday and right now it is looking like a mainly rain event but it could possibly turn into a major snow event.  It is still too far to tell but I'll keep monitoring it.  AccuWeather is hyping it up to possibly being a big snowstorm but only time will tell which way it decides to go.  The NAO continues to stay positive which is not allowing the cold air to stay around for long.  Forecasts indicate it will stay positive for a while so expect this pattern to continue for a while.

Looking ahead into early February, models show a 50%-60% chance of having above average temperatures and a 33% chance of having above average precipitation for the first week of February.

The other graphics show the whole month of February and the probability of having above average, normal, or below average temperature and precipitation.  Again we are in the above average for both.

Significant snow expected overnight Friday...warmer temps return late weekend.

15 Z model showing amount of snow that is expected
to fall between Friday 7PM & Saturday 7AM.

Sick of the snow yet?  What started out as a dry and mild winter has quickly turned into a roller coaster ride of temperatures and precipitation and it's not time to get off the ride yet.  The area will add another 3"-7" inches overnight Friday as a low pressure system passes just to our south.  This snow will not be lake effect.  It is just simply precipitation that is associated with the northern section of the low.  After Friday temperatures will begin an upward trend as a low pressure system begins to form in the central U.S and starts to advect warm air towards us. Sunday looks to be close to 40 and Monday is looking to be in the mid 40's as of right now.  There is that roller coaster ride in full effect.  Monday should be interesting as rain will change over to snow at some point.  Finer details will be put out later as the time gets closer.

Wind Gusts 1/17/12

Here are the reported wind gusts in miles per hour around the area for 1/17/12. 
Click the image to enlarge it.

Wind reports observed from area airports & personal weather
stations on Wunderground.

Cold Air Moves In...Warmer Air On Its Way

Weather pattern for early next week.  Warmer air will return
with rain showers for the area.
AccuWeather Graphic

Area Lows For 1/15/12. Many locations
dropped below 0°.
CrawfordWeather.com Graphic

Temperatures around the county dipped pretty low last night.  Many locations were below 0 with -10 being the lowest reported by area weather stations.  Temperatures will warm back up early on in the week...Monday & Tuesday are looking to be in the upper 30's.  Cooler air will move back in later on in the week. 

Area Lows (°F)

Local Airports

Meadville:  3
Erie: 4
Franklin:  0

Personal Weather Stations

Townville:  -6
Cambridge Springs, PA (Rockdale Twshp):  -10
Woodcock Borough:  -3
Woodcock Township(Saegertown Area):  -4
Conneaut Lake Area (KPAMEADV4):  0
Cherrytree (Titusville Area):  -6
Conneautville Area:  -9
Spartansburg Area:  3

Winter Weather Update

NWS graphic showing snowfall accumulations through
Sunday.

A strong low pressure system will track its way up through the northeast Thursday and begin to move out Friday.  It will be mainly rain for Thursday as the air above us will be too warm for snow but as Thursday night rolls around and the low beings to scoot its way out of our area, cold air will move in bringing the threat for snow.  This system has alot of moisture with it and snow totals right now are looking to be around the 3"-8" (5"-10") mark for Crawford County between Thursday night & Friday night.  Right now, it is looking like Friday night is when the winds will shift to the WNW.  This along with chilly 850 mb temps and a 38 degree lake will present a chance for lake effect snow.  So far it isn't looking like the lake effect event we had right after new years but expect another few inches Saturday-Sunday (I'll have numbers later).  Winds will be breezy at times so this along with the snow may cause some whiteouts and drifting snow.  Colder temperatures will move into the area for the weekend as well.  I'll have more updates as the days get closer.

Update (7:00PM Thursday January 12, 2011)

I've been looking at the latest computer models for this storm trying to determine snowfall totals.  The first batch of snowfall will begin just after midnight tonight.  This will not be lake effect.  It is just precipitation associated with a low that is tracking northeasterly through the area. Snowfall overnight tonight is looking to be in the 2"-4" range for most of the county.  Some areas could see higher amounts. Friday is when the lake effect kicks in...most likely more towards the late afternoon/evening.  Snow will be falling most of the day though...accumulations look to be around the 3"-6" (2"-5") mark for most of the county.  Some areas in the north like Cambridge/Canadohta lake/Conneautville could see a little more.  Winds will be breezy and quite gusty at times.  Blowing & drifting snow will be a problem and will make driving tough.  Make sure to drive safe.  Lake effect snow will batter the region Friday night with about 4"-8" (3"-7") of new snowfall.  Saturday, more snow showers will be around.  Looks like another couple inches are possible.  I'll have updated totals as things change throughout the next 24 hours.  Make sure to check back.
Lake effect will continue into Saturday with another 2"-5" expected...higher amounts out near Conneautville/Cambridge/Canadohta Lake.

Ring Around The Moon

The moon with a "halo" around it.  It was taken around 1 AM
in State College on Jan 9th..  There were reports of seeing it in
Crawford & Erie Counties as well.
Photo Taken By Jordan

I heard a few people talking about seeing a ring around the moon tonight so I went and checked it out.  I was able to see it once last year as well...very neat.  Many people tend to freak out when they see this.  No, it's not a sign that the world is coming to an end.  It's actually a very interesting phenomenon that occurs every now and then. 


The ring is caused by a refraction of light through ice crystals (mainly thin cirrus clouds) in the upper atmosphere.  The crystals have a hexagonal shape to them which causes the ring around the moon.  The ring will typically be the same size (22° across the sky) due to the hexagonal shape of the crystals.

Folklore says that the ring indicates that bad weather is coming.  The cirrus clouds usually come before a warm front and low pressure system which tends to bring stormy weather.  Also, some say that the amount of stars inside the ring indicate how many days until the stormy weather arrives. Does this work? Check it out sometime...

New Years Wind Gusts

Here are some wind gusts reported around the area on January 1st 2012.

Local Airports

Meadville:  40 mph
Erie:  49 mph
Franklin:  41 mph

Personal Weather Stations

Townville:  24 mph
Cambridge Springs, PA (Rockdale Township):  31 mph
Woodcock Borough:  29 mph
Woodcock Township(Saegertown Area):  24 mph
Conneaut Lake Area (KPAMEADV4):  33 mph
Grand Valley (Titusville Area):  34 mph