Friday's Wind Gusts

Graphic of area wind gusts.  Yellow numbers indicate official airport data.
White numbers are personal weather stations.  Data is from
wunderground.com.  Values are in mph.

Strong winds ripped through the area Friday afternoon bringing some trees down in some places.  Check out the graphic of the areas max wind gusts.

Up & Down Weather Pattern Heading Into The Weekend

It has been an active weather pattern over our area this past week.  The Jet Stream has developed a meridional flow across the U.S. and is bringing system after system up through the northeast.  Mild air will hang around for tomorrow and into Friday before cooler air returns to the area.  Tomorrow looks to be mainly dry but there is a slight chance for rain showers late.  Rain will move in overnight Thursday and into Friday before changing over to snow later during the day Friday.  Winds will be gusty Thursday night and Friday and will shift to the NW Friday night which could create some lake effect snow.  Snow totals look to be about 1"-3" during the late part of the day Friday with the heaviest accumulating Friday night into Saturday.  Snow totals then should be around 2"-5" with higher totals likely in the northern parts of the county.  An inch or so will accumulate Saturday.  Sunday isn't looking too bad.  There should be plenty of sun with temperatures hovering in the mid 30's.

Meteorological winter runs until the end of February and with only a week left, this winter will probably end as one of the warmest for many cities across the U.S.  READ  ARTICLE

Mild and Below Average Snowfall Summarizes Winter Season So Far

What a crazy winter season it has been.  What started out in the Fall as a forecasted cold and snowy winter has been nothing of the sort thus far and has Meteorologists scratching their heads.  The NAO has remained positive throughout the winter which has prevented the blocking of cold air.  The cold air has not been able to stick around for long periods and there really hasn't been much cold air in general.  I think roller coaster is a great description of the winter in our region so far.  For most of December and January we experienced warmer days with rain, followed by colder air and snow.  The position of the JET Stream is to blame for this weather pattern.  Towards late January we hit a calm stretch but recently the JET Stream has developed a more meridional flow which is again creating that roller coaster weather pattern.

Plot showing the 2011-2012 Average High Temperature and the Normal
High each month for Meadville, PA.  Average monthly high temperatures
have been above normal in this winter season so far.

 This winter has been above average in temperatures and below average in snowfall.  The average temperature departure from the observed highs and normal high through the months of November and January show that we are running about 5°F above normal.  The same can be said about the low temperatures.  They are running about 6°F above normal.  So it is no lie, this winter running a little warm.

Plot showing the 2011-2012 Average Low Temperature and the Normal
Low each month for Meadville, PA.  Average monthly low temperatures
have been above normal in this winter season so far.

MEADVILLE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
	Normal (°F)		Observed Avg (°F)		Departure (°F)
	High	Low	High	Low	High	Low
Nov 2011	48	33	54	38	6	5
Dec 2011	36	23	40	29	4	6
Jan 2012	31	17	36	23	5	6
Feb 2012	34	17	-	-	-	-
Mar 2012	43	24	-	-	-	-
Apr 2012	57	36	-	-	-	-

Plot of the 2011-2012 winter snowfall, the average snowfall, and last
years snowfall for each month for Erie, PA.  This year has been below
average in terms of monthly and total snowfall.

The closest location with snowfall records is Erie which is recorded by the NWS in Cleveland.   Clearly we have not had as much snow this year and the NWS data can confirm this.  Data shows that Erie is running 28.9 inches below normal for this time of the year.  I don't have snowfall data for Meadville but I do record it for Townville.  Total snowfall for this winter for Townville is 70.7 inches.  This is my first year keeping records so I have nothing to compare it too but I would have to assume that this is below normal.

ERIE SNOWFALL
Month/Year	Observed	Average	Departure	Last Year
	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)
Nov 2011	0.8	7.8	-7.0	0
Dec 2011	9.2	27.8	-18.6	12.7
Jan 2012	26.5	29.8	-3.3	21.5
Feb 2012		17.3		35.7
Mar 2012		11.2		14.8
Apr 2012		2.3		2.0
TOTALS	36.5	96.2	-28.9	86.7

The above average temperatures look to continue into next month.  The Climate Prediction Center is saying that our region will likely experience above average temperatures for the month of March as well as above average precipitation.  That precipitation however will most likely be in the form of rain so snow totals will likely continue to suffer. Even the three month outlooks show above average temperatures and precipitation.  It looks like this trend will continue into spring as well.

March temperature outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

March precipitation outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

March, April, and May temperature outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

 

March, April, and May precipitation outlook.
Image: Climate Prediction Center

Skywarn Spotter Training Dates Announced

Skwarn spotter card that enables you to report severe
weather events to the NWS. 

The NWS in Cleveland has announced the Skywarn Spotter Training dates for 2012.  Each year these training sessions are held in just about every county and main purpose is to educate the public on weather spotting techniques.  A meteorologist from the NWS is typically in attendance and gives a presentation on spotting techniques and a background on severe weather.  This event is free and is open to the public.  The Skywarn session in Crawford County will be held Thursday March 22, 2012  at 6:30 PM.  It will be held in St. Brigids Church in Meadville.  If you can't make it to the one in Meadville, there will also be one in Erie at Hamot Hospital on Tuesday March 27, 2012 at 6:30 PM. 

I was able to attend the one in Erie last year.  It was my first time attending a Skywarn Session and I was impressed.  Gary Garnet, a meteorologist at the NWS in Cleveland gave a presentation on severe weather and spotting techniques.  The presentation was great and very informative.  I encourage everybody to attend a session.  It is a great experience and I guarantee you will walk out of there with more knowledge of the weather.  The best part about Skywarn is that it is free and open to anybody.  You also get the opportunity to sign up to become a spotter which enables you the chance to report any severe weather to the NWS.  Because they are in Cleveland and cannot be present every time severe weather occurs, they rely on their Skywarn spotters heavily for severe weather reports.  Everything is free and anybody can sign up.

  Crawford County Skywarn
  Thursday March 22, 2012 6:30 PM
  St. Brigids Church
  383 Arch Street
  Meadville, PA 16335
  MAP

  Erie County Skywarn
  Tuesday March 27, 2012 6:30 PM
  Hamot Hospital
  Hamot Hospital Audtorium
  201 State Street Erie, PA 16550
  MAP


Go To The NWS Cleveland Skywarn Website

Chilly Air & Snow Highlight The Weekend

NAM total liquid precipitation up
through Monday morning. 
Liquid water equivalents show
roughly 4" to 10" for the area.

An arctic front will pass through the area early Saturday morning bringing chilly air and snow to the region.  Snow associated with the front will drop about 1" to 3" of snow late Friday night and into Saturday.  Winds will shift to the NW late Saturday creating a pretty good lake effect scenario.  Lake effect snow bands are expected to begin forming late Saturday and continuing into Sunday.  Saturday's snow totals look to be in the 2"-5"  3"-6" range. The area could see an additional 1"-4" of snow Sunday as well. Total accumulations from Friday through Sunday night are looking to be around the 5"-10" mark with higher amounts possible in the northern portions of the county.  High temperatures will be around the 20 degree mark over the weekend with lows in the lower teens.  Winds will pick up Saturday & Sunday and with the chilly air will create some bitter wind chill values around 0°F.

As for early next week, high pressure will dominate the region with mostly sunny skies Monday.  Another system will move through Tuesday bringing more snow to the area.

I'll have updated snowfall forecasts tomorrow so make sure to check back.

Rare Activity in the Gulf

Track of the Groundhog's Day Tropical Storm in 1952.
This has been the only tropical storm in the month
of February since records have been kept.

IR image from PSU e-Wall. 

Tropical storms in February? Say what?  Yes indeed there is some tropical activity going on in the Gulf of Mexico right now right off the Yucatan Peninsula.  As of right now, it is just a cluster of showers and thunderstorms but the National Hurricane Center is giving this thing a 30% chance of forming into a structured storm.  IF it were to form into something more organized, this would be the only 2nd time ever in the month of February that a tropical storm formed.  The only other time this happened was back in 1952 when the Groundhogs Day Tropical Storm hit southern Florida. 


The hurricane season officially runs from June to November but it is not unlikely to get storms outside of these months.  However, it is typically rare to see one in February.  If this thing develops into a tropical storm, it will acquire the name Alberto, which is first on the 2012 name list.

UPDATE:  4:30 PM Feb 6

The National Hurricane Center is saying there is a 0 percent chance of further development with this system so looks like Alberto will have to wait. 

Colder Air On Its Way

The positive phase on the left with the negative phase on
the right and their affects to local weather.
Wikipedia

GFS model is showing colder air moving in later this week and staying around for a while...a sign that winter may make its presence felt before spring rolls around.  The AO index has become strongly negative and the NAO, which has been positive, is decreasing and flirting with negativity.  Both of these influence temperatures and a strong negative AO and NAO typically results in colder temperatures for the Eastern U.S.  It looks as if temperatures may dip below normal for a bit so don't put those winter jackets away just yet.

Arctic Oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation

Nice Days Ahead

The next few days are looking pretty nice!  A cut off low, which was supposed to be the big "snow storm" will be blocked and pushed to the south over the next few days and will not affect our area.  There will be plenty of sun for the weekend and into Monday as well.  Tuesday there is a chance for some light flurries or snow showers but nothing crazy.  Even after Tuesday, the models are showing no big systems moving in so as of right now things are looking to stay generally nice for this time of year.  Expect temperatures to remain above average right through the week.  Looking way ahead, the GFS model doesn't show any big systems moving through until the 15th (wouldn't that be nice) which is looking like a rain switching to snow event but that is way too far ahead to really make a call on.  Keep that in mind though.  Enjoy the weekend everybody!

High Temperatures For Tuesday January 31st

Here are the local highs for Tuesday when unseasonably warm air made its way into the region.  Meadville's record was 58° and the official airport reading came up 2° short.  Erie fell short of its record as well.

High temperatures across the region Tuesday.  White numbers are
official airport readings.  Meadvilles record: 58°, Erie's record: 63°.  Neither
were broken.  Temperatures taken from area PWS & Airports.

Night Sky Gazing

Clear cold nights are best for viewing the night sky and discovering the wonderful constellations and planets that are all around us.  Now that we are in February, those clear & cold nights will be happening more frequently so it is time to be aware of what you are looking at!  There are many neat constellations worth checking out this time of year and I've created a list of a few of them.


Orion 

   - Known as "The Hunter"
   - Some say he is holding a lion, a shield, or a bow in one hand. 
   - Other hand has a club or a sword.
   - Most popular for "Orion's Belt"

Where & When: Look just south of the center of the sky around 8-9 PM...progresses through sky from sunset to early morning.



The Famous Dippers....


Ursa Major & Minor ("The Big & Little Dipper")

Ursa Major is latin for "Larger Bear" and is widley known for "The Big Dipper" which is part of the constellation Ursa Major.  Many believe the constellation looks like a bear with the tail being what many know as the big dipper. Once you find the big dipper in the sky, finding the rest of the constellation is fairly easy.  Look for the legs! They are the easiest.

Ursa Minor is Latin for "Little Bear", widely known as "The Little Dipper" and is sometimes hard to see at night, depending on where you live.  The stars can appear a little faint to the eye and many city lights typically make it really hard to see.  At the end of the little dipper is Polaris, the north star.  It is NOT the brightest star in the night sky but is typically easy to find.  The two end stars of the bowl of the big dipper point to Polaris and from there you can look for the rest of the constellation.

Where & When:  Look to the north central part of the sky around midnight/1 AM for the best viewing.  They can be seen through most of the night.

Cassiopeia

Fairly easy constellation to find in the sky due to its "W" shape.  Not to far away from the dippers in the sky.

Where & When: See the dippers above.


Canis Major 

Latin for "Greater Dog" and is known as the dog constellation.  Biggest feature is the star "Sirius" which is the brightest in the night sky.  It serves as the dog's nose.  This star is very noticable in the sky due to its brightness.  Easy way to find it though is to follow the direction Orion's belt is pointing.  It will lead you right to it.  The star has also been called the "Rainbow Star" due to it's frequent flickering appearance. 

Sick of constellations? Ah....interested in Planets?

Venus can be seen in the western sky at dusk until a a couple hours after sunset. Venus is very bright and is hard to miss.

Night sky around 8:30 PM EST.  Venus is setting in the West
with Mars just begining to rise in the East.  Jupiter & the Moon
are near the center of the sky.

Jupiter is also very bright and can be seen until around midnight.  It is fairly close to the moon and is pretty easy to spot.  If you have a powerful telescope, you should be able to zoom in on it and see its moons.

Mars is rising around 8 PM in the Eastern sky and can be seen throughout the night.  It has a red/orange glow to it.

Saturn can be seen rising in the Eastern sky and hanging around the south central part of the sky most of the night.