Snowfall Accumlations Lower Than Expected

This image was taken Monday
outside of State College.  A snow
depth of 5"-6" can be seen on top
of the mountain ridge with
no snow down in the flat valley.
It really shows you how much
elevation factors in for snowfall
accumulations.
Credit: Brandon Orr

For some, this weekends storm caused alot of problems. For most of Northwestern Pennsylvania, it was a storm that really never lived up to its potential.  This storm was elevation dependent in terms of accumulating snowfall and this can be seen on the snow totals map.  Higher elevations through the state yielded higher snowfall amounts and this was forecasted by Meteorologists.  However, more snow was expected to fall across NW PA including Crawford County but the warmer surface made it tough for snow to accumulate. Most foretasted snowfall amounts around the area were a little bit high. Some places across the state did get a good amount of snow from this storm.  These areas suffered power outages form the heavy wet snow bringing down power lines and trees. The winner for highest snowfall accumulation was Laurel Summit down near Somerset.  After the storm moved out, they had recorded a total of 24".

Snowfall totals for Monday April 23.  Higher amounts were
in the snowbelts (higher elevations).
Snowfall values from NWS.

Looking at long range weather, there is no sign of any more freak storms in the near future. :)

Snowfall accumulations for April 23-24.  Mountainous
regions received the higher amounts.  The highest was at
Laurel Summit down near Somerset.  They received
24" of snow over the two day period.
Credit: NOAA

Get Those Shovels Ready

AccuWeather's snowfall predictions.

SREF showing 12 hr probabilty of 8+ inches of snow.  The
highest probability is in Eastern Crawford, Erie, and Southwestern NY.
Credit: e-Wall

I hope you dug out those shovels and winter jackets because the fun starts tomorrow. Snow is expected to begin falling around sunrise.  All the weather models I've seen are predicting anywhere between 10" to 16".  Again, models tend to be a little bullish but I wouldn't doubt that some higher elevations in Central PA and southern NY actually see totals that high.  For Crawford County, I'm predicting anywhere between 5" and 9" tomorrow with another 2"-4" overnight into Tuesday AM.  Total snow accumulations through Wednesday will be around 7"-13" with higher amounts coming in the higher elevation areas (Canadohta Lake, Cambridge Springs).  A Winter Storm Watch was issued by the NWS earlier.  I'm sure they will upgrade that to a warning eventually.  The bulk of the snow from this system is expected to fall in Western, Central PA and Southern NY so I'm sure the weather media will be focusing on our area over the next couple days. This snow will be a very wet snow with alot of water content.  This, along with the leaves on the trees, could cause trees to fall and power lines to go down.

As lame as the winter has been, I think we can handle this one snow storm :)

SREF Plume for Port Meadville Airport.  The dark line in the middle
is the mean amount of snowfall predicted to accumulate.  It is the average
of many model runs seen in the picture.  The mean levels out at around 12".

One last shot of winter?

Looks like mother nature has some tricks up her sleeves.  A nor'easter type system will impact the area early this week bringing plenty of precipitation.  Models indicate more of a snow event with the GFS & NAM

4 model runs valid Monday afternoon.  Each show a system with
a bulk of the precip over Western PA.

predicting upwards of 10 inches in the area.  The Euro is predicting 9"-12" inches.  Both of these seem a little bullish in my opinion.  It all depends on how much cold air this system can tap into and earlier model runs indicated a good amount but I just looked at today's 12Z model and it isn't showing as much cold air.  I still see Crawford County getting a decent amount, say about 3"-7".  Higher elevations have the better chance of seeing snow so areas like Bradford, Warren, and southern NY will definitely see a decent amount.  Either way you look at it, there will be snow and cold so it will be a miserable start to the week.  Bust those snow shovels back out, you'll probably need them one last time.

Euro snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning.  It is prediciting
9"-12" for our area.

Gusty Winds Rip Through Area

Strong winds ripped through the area on Monday. Here are some of the maximum wind gusts around the area.  Yellow numbers are official airport numbers while white numbers are personal weather stations.

Severe Weather Potential Monday

SPC Day 2 convective outlook.  NW PA is in the 15% area for
chance of seeing severe weather within a 25 mile radius.
Credit: SPC

 

Mild temperatures will invade the region Monday.  Highs are expected to approach the 80's.  The record high for Meadville is 83 set back in 1993.  The mild temperatures along with a strong low level jet will present a severe probability tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Keep an eye out and stay weather smart.

Hats off to the SPC

The severe weather outbreak this weekend was a devastating event for many in the central plains.  Thanks to the Storm Prediction Center, there was 7 days notice of this event.  Yes, 7 days.  Most Meteorologists get a bad rep when it comes to accuracy.  Predicting the future is tough and it can be tough generating a 7 day forecast.  There is much uncertainty in the atmospheric science field, and the weather models have flaws. However with the invention of computers and research, forecasts are improving every day.  Hats off to the folks at the SPC for getting the severe weather outbreak right 7 days in advance.  Forecasts like these are what saves peoples lives.

Mild, Stormy Weekend Ahead

Temperature departures for Sunday.  Temperatures are forecasted to be 15-18°F
above normal for this time of year.
Source: PSU e-Wall

As the ridge of high pressure moves east of us today, warmer air will begin to funnel in from the south.  This along with a low pressure system this weekend will create very mild temperatures for the region.  It is possible that we could see 80's Sunday, which would be well above normal for this time of year.  Overall, highs will be at or above 70 all weekend but a cold front will move through Monday evening which will bring temperatures back to normality for Tuesday.  In terms of precipitation, there is a chance for showers and storms Saturday evening into Sunday that are associated with the approaching warm front.  More showers and storms are possible along the cold front as it moves through Monday evening.  There will be plenty of dry time as well over the weekend with some sun.

An interesting set up will occur over the central plains Saturday which has prompted the SPC to issue a high risk watch area.  Definitely keep an eye on that for a possible tornado outbreak over that region.

Have a good weekend everybody.

Easter Weekend Outlook

Hello everybody. I hope the week has gone well for you.  Weather wise, it has been fairly quiet with average temperatures and a fair amount of sun.  This pattern will persist into the weekend. For those of you who may be traveling over the weekend, travel weather is looking decent. 

High pressure will dominate Saturday and into Sunday.  Mainly clear skies and temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50's will be the story for Saturday.

 Skies will remain clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the mid 30's and will rebound close to 60 for Easter Sunday. 

Sunday will start out mostly sunny but clouds will increase towards evening and a chance of a shower is possible as a weak front associated with a low up in Canada moves through.

Overall, the weather should be pretty nice.

Have a great Easter everybody!