May 16, 2012

Storm Chase Delayed

The storm chase has been delayed until Thursday.  This is due to a fairly quiet weather pattern that has set up across the United States.  A large ridge has been in place which is damping down any shortwaves moving across the western US into the plains.  However, Saturday is looking decent for storm development in the northern plains.  A shortwave is looking to move through along with a deepening low pressure system.  A low level jet is expected to develop ahead of the cold front which will advect gulf moisture up through the plains and fuel any type of storm development.  Here is some of the forecast discussion for the northern plains:

MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. THIS WILL BRING
THE COOL FRONT INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE
SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR SD
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY/EARLY EVENING...SITTING BETWEEN THE JAMES
VALLEY AND I-29 BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR RIGHT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN WARM/INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT.
GREATER CONCERN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OR
BACK-BUILDING OF STORMS.

This has given the StormTrackerWx team some hope for chasing some storms so we have decided to set out Thursday morning for the Dakotas.  We are hoping to run into some severe weather out there so wish us luck!  Remember to follow StormTrackerWx on facebook, CrawfordWeather.com on facebook, CrawfordWeather on twitter, and to check out the CrawfordWeather.com Blog for more details and updates as we progress through our trip.  You can watch us LIVE on StormTrackerWx.com as well!

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