Potential Big Storm Updated

GFS ensembles.  This shows the GFS comp model and the
potential track of Sandy. Notice how many of them are
curving back to the U.S.  This is a change to earlier
runs where most of them were going out to sea.
Image: Wunderground

I wrote about the huge storm that could hit the northeast in my last post and here is an update.  The possibility of a strong tropical system of some kind hitting the northeast coast is still possible and if anything has slightly became a little more likely according to the recent computer model updates.  The GFS model, which has been all over the place, was trending an out to sea kind of pattern for tropical system Sandy but recent model runs have it trending back westward.  The Euro model as of this mornings model run still has it slamming into the NE. The Canadian model which agreed with the Euro for the most part backed off a little and had it moving farther out in the Atlantic.  It is still way too early to make any definite decisions on this storm and you can understand why with the wide spread in the models.  However, the Euro has been the only consistent one so far (depending on tonights model run).  It has yet to jump around like the GFS and CMC.  Interesting enough, the GFS is trending back westward and most of the GFS ensembles are actually taking it more like the Euro.

12z Euro model run from earlier today.  Check out that
hurricane!  Will this computer model stay like this?!?

So what does this mean?  It means that a storm hitting the east coast is still possible.  It also means that here in Crawford County, we still have the chance of feeling the effects of a strong tropical system, whether it be a tropical storm or even a hurricane if and when it hits the coast.  Recent observations seem to show a smaller chance of this becoming a huge snow event. Although if snow was to mix in to the picture, we would be on the backside of the system and could be in the target zone. But that is not very likely right now.  What is more likely is heavy, flooding rains and strong winds.  The worst case scenario with this storm is if it follows the Euro model.  It would be devastating to the east coast if that model holds true and there would be alot of problems.  I'll have more in the near future.